Ideas

Peace

In a world set to reach nearly 10 billion inter-connected people, power will come from creating peace, prosperity and freedom so that we can make breakthroughs in how we live together, and this requires a transformation in the very definition of power, and the purpose and principles by which it is exercised

GPC’s Macro Thought Leadership

GPC’s research focuses on the geostrategic changes in the world and the implications of for peace, prosperity and freedom. Our analysis seeks to find the patterns and identify the new forces that are the signs of our times and will determine the future of the world


The world is in a historic transition of great power hegemony, world order, population and resources which will change the very nature of civilisation. These transformations create discontinuities and a dynamic canvas on which the world’s future will be written

The 21st Century has been widely predicted to be the Asian Century, in which the continent, home to 60% of the world’s population, will become the world’s dominant economic, political and even cultural force. Within this continent of 49 countries, two will disproportionately impact the trajectory of the 21st Century on account of their scale and growth potential: China and India. The relationship between these two countries as well as the trialogue with the world’s current hegemon, the United States, will will be critical to shaping global economic and political trends for generations to come.

 

A modern India lifting a billion people out of poverty will need a large, modern and diversified economy to not only realize the aspirations of people but also to clothe, feed, employ and educate what will become the world’s largest population within the next five years and this will require an India that is open to the world and dedicated to unlocking the potential of its people and its assets

 

We bring our network of business leaders, entrepreneurs, influencers and thinkers who are at the frontline of change across to provide insights into the global issues that are rapidly changing the world and how they see an impact being made for good

 

We recognise the complex and rapidly changing nature of India’s markets and economy as it grows and expands internationally and have focused the firm’s thought leadership on detailed research to generate insights into the macro-environment, market strategy, investment opportunities and challenges to generate attractive risk adjusted returns

We live in revolutionary times. Increasingly political, economic and social volatility is driving change on a global level, creating both risks and opportunities for international investors. Greater Pacific Capital’s thought leadership and investing strategy placed it at the forefront of global change

Selected news that makes the difference

Foreign Direct Investment Inflow to India May Touch US$100 billion in 2022-23.

A report by the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry states that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow to India is expected to reach US$100 billion in FY2022/23 supported by various economic reforms and increased ease of doing business.

ADB, HSBC India Sign a US$100m Partial-Guarantee Program to Promote Micro Loans.

The Asian Development Bank and HSBC India will jointly create a US$100m partial-guarantee program to help Indian micro finance institutions access funding for on-lending activities to support over 400K micro-borrowers and women-run microenterprises.

SES Partners with Nasdaq to add ESG Performance Metrics for Top 100 Indian Firms.

These ESG Performance Metrics, which will be available for the past four financial years and updated annually, will provide more than 170 data points on ESG parameters for each of the top 100 listed companies in India based on market capitalization.

India Plans Standalone Renewable Battery Power Bank.

India is setting up a first-of-its-kind standalone renewable battery power bank envisaging an investment of c.US$300m to make green energy available on tap for discoms and grid operators during peak demand, a move to further strengthen implementation India’s solar and wind energy plans.

PE-VC Investments up 72% in March 2022 Quarter.

Private Equity-Venture Capital (PE-VC) firms invested over US$15.1 billion across 346 deals in Indian companies during the first three months of 2022, representing a 72% rise over the $8.8 billion (257 deals) invested in the same period in 2021.

IMF Cuts India's GDP Growth Forecast by 80bps to 8.2% for FY23.

IMF made a downward revision in the growth forecast for India for FY23, matching that for the global economy as a whole, with FY23 growth forecast for India cut by 80 basis points to 8.2 percent, warning that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would hurt consumption and hence, growth, by way of higher prices.

Spotlight on the key monthly news events shaping media coverage in India

Media coverage in India this month covered the Trade and Technology Council established by India the EU, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s two-day India visit and the free trade agreement signed by India and Australia.

 

India, European Union Agree to Establish Trade and Technology Council

 

India and the European Union (EU) agreed to establish a Trade and Technology Council, a coordination mechanism to tackle challenges at the nexus of trade, trusted technology, and security — a move that is expected to deepen their strategic relationship. The decision to set up such a council will be the first for India with any of its partners and second for the EU, following the first one with the US. Various media publications focused on how the new Trade and Technology council will deepen India-EU co-operation across trade and technology over the coming years.

 

An op-ed in the Livemint by two technology policy experts writing in their personal capacity detailed how India should focus on leveraging the EU-India Trade and Technology Council to ensure that Indian technology firms are able to navigate an under-penetrated European market, which currently accounts for only c.15% of Indian software services exports. “the Council is geared towards helping intensify cooperation between both jurisdictions on issues that lie at the intersection of trade, trusted technology, and security. It is a welcome pact, as it may engender avenues for greater market access for Indian technology companies in the EU. . Another value that lies at the heart of EU technology regulation is fair competition… The EU has weaponized the important value of fair competition towards narrow and protectionist ends... India, with its software-engineering prowess, is likely to have an edge over Europe.”

Key insights and forecasts that show us what is to come

What Macron's Re-election Means for Globalization and the World.

It means continuation of globalization, faster crystallization of Europe as a centre of geopolitical power and a roadblock in the path of populist takeover of the political discourse.

What If the War in Ukraine Doesn’t End? The Global Consequences of a Long Conflict.

A long-term war in Ukraine would have consequences on a global scale and were it to become entrenched, it would certainly exacerbate global hunger, given that Ukraine and Russia are major producers of foodstuffs.

Fiscal Support and Monetary Vigilance: Economic Policy Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for the European Union.

Governments must decide how to soften the blow of higher energy and food prices, and how much to rely on debt finance. The European Central Bank must fight against inflation while sustaining aggregate demand.

How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa’s Energy Transition.

To date, most of the attention has focused on European energy security and how the crisis might shape (for good and bad) that region’s decarbonization plans. But the energy sector impacts of this war will reverberate across every corner of the globe.

India’s Subtle Shifts Toward the West and Away from Russia.

India may have already started taking steps to maintain distance from Russia in case Russia becomes China’s junior partner after the war by prioritising those of its strategic interests that require closer cooperation with the Western countries.

The China Factor in India’s Engagements with Europe.

Recent engagements are an opportunity for India and European countries to iron out their differences over perception of strategic threats emerging from Russia and China.

India’s e-belt-and-road Initiative for Digital Diplomacy.

In recent times India has discovered that its homegrown digital solutions can not only be leveraged to further its own development agenda, but also support its wider diplomatic efforts.

How Countries Can Regulate Investment Screening.

As countries shore up their defences, through tighter investment screening and foreign direct investment (FDI) criteria, policymakers should be alive to the risk that the new processes create unintended consequences.

How to Deliver the Energy Transition.

With the real possibility that the spikes in natural gas and oil prices lead to a lurch back to coal as much as a surge forward to renewables, the urgent task for governments is to create a credible way for businesses and households to invest in a safer climate and future.

Seven Ideas to Enhance Energy Security and Advance Climate Goals.

The guiding principle for the United States should be to enable a sharp reduction in Russian oil and gas exports, largely by increasing U.S. oil and gas production, but without a corresponding increase in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions.

Future Development: Mainstream Economic Policy Must Factor Climate Change into its Growth Calculus.

Growth economics—influential in country policy—could integrate climate change and the environment and it is time to complement, if not replace, gross domestic product with a measure of quality growth that is net of climate cost damages.

The Key Events Driving Global Instability & Opportunity

Big Picture TEST Metrics for the US, India and China, February 2022

India’s Manufacturing PMI was down to 55.5 in December 2021 from a tenth-month high of 57.6 in October, remaining in the growth territory, amid slower rise in sales and new orders, even as business sentiment was dampened by concerns surrounding supply-chain disruptions, COVID-19 and inflationary pressures. Exports and imports grew by 39% and 40% respectively as compared to the same period last year driven by rising international demand for Indian goods. No further rate cut was announced by the RBI during this month.

 

China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in December 2021 from 50.1 in November, slightly above market expectations of 50. The latest reading pointed to a modest growth rate in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to remain subdued at the start of the new year due to uncertainties brought by the pandemic outbreak in Xian and Omicron variant. Exports and imports grew by 21% and 20% respectively as compared to the same period last year.