The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others



The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

The Indian economy saw a decline in trade and its manufacturing output grew at its slowest pace in two years in October. The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI was 50.6 in October (against 51.4 in September) highlighting only a marginal improvement in the health of the manufacturing industry. On the trade front, exports and imports declined by 2% and 15% respectively over the same period last year. No further change in interest rates was observed since Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate cut in October.

China’s manufacturing activity shrank for the sixth straight month as well as exports and imports declined amid a domestic economic slowdown and the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute. The official China Manufacturing PMI reading for the month came in at 49.3, lower than economists’ expectations of 49.8 in September.  On the trade front, exports and imports declined by 6% and 7% respectively over the same period last year.



Big Pic Test December Image


Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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