The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others


The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below. India retained its position as the world’s fastest growing major economy during the quarter ended September 2018, with GDP expanding by 7.1%.  The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI grew to a 11-month high of 54.0 in November (vs. 53.1 in October), remaining in expansion territory, and signalling the improvement in the health of India's manufacturing economy in the year so far.  There was positive news on the trade front, with exports and imports, increasing by 1% and 4% respectively, over the same period last year.  No further change in interest rates was observed since the Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate increase in early August. China’s economic performance remained steady in November, with manufacturing activity expanding at a slightly slower pace than previous months but exports and imports registering growth.  The Official China Manufacturing PMI reading for the month came in at 50.0, lower than analyst expectations of 50.2 in October, indicating no growth in activity or contraction on a monthly basis.  On the trade front, exports and imports witnessed a significant increase by 5% and 3% respectively, over the same period last year.  

Big Pic Test Jan 2019 Image


Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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