Pointing to the Future in October 2019
Pointing to the Future
U.S.-India Maritime Security Cooperation. Given that India is increasingly concerned about the Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean, the United States is a natural partner in enabling India to expand its technological and planning capabilities.
The Way Forward in Hong Kong. Given the escalating violent protests across the country, a right balance needs to be found between the interests of Hong Kong and China, difficult though this may be politically.
India-Saudi Arabia Ties: Scaling New Heights. India’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has become multifaceted due to the impetus given by the leaderships of both countries to other areas besides energy, including defense, maritime security, counterterrorism, science and technology, strategic oil reserves, investments and tourism.
India is Redefining Its Role in the Politics of the Middle East. India’s progression in relations with Saudi Arabia highlights that the areas of cooperation between India and the countries of the Middle East have expanded, allowing India to not only strengthen bilateral relations but also allowing it to play a greater role in that region.
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as a Trade Opportunity Rather than Threat. India has been poor in accessing Global Value Chains (GVCs)—c.16%—but the opportunity to change that is by way of the RCEP deal, which is important for the country’s strategic interests, and to resuscitate a rules-based international trading order.
China Adjusts to the New World Order. With the outside world increasingly rejecting engagement, China’s leaders have been working to counter the backlash against globalization and have reconfirmed their commitment to continued reform and opening up the economy.
No Art to the US-China Trade Deal. The phase one accord of the trade deal has the same basic structure from trade to currency – prescribing bilateral remedies for multilateral problems.
US-China Trade Talks: No Deal Yet, but a Breakthrough of Sorts. The phase one agreement with China suggests the US is beginning to develop a more realistic expectation of what agreement is possible to achieve in this long quarrel, and what not.
China, the Pacific, and the “Debt Trap” Question. The sheer scale of Chinese lending to countries in the Pacific, combined with inadequate controls to avoid potentially unsustainable loans could result in countries rapidly entering risky territory in terms of their overall burden of debt.
Economic Ties Hinge on China Addressing Strategic Concerns. China cannot expect a robust trade and technology relationship with India even as it continues to scuttle India’s rise on the global stage and remains insensitive to India’s core security concerns.
China’s Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme: Smoke and Mirrors. China’s upcoming national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) will not feature an overall cap on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, rather a CO2 intensity trading scheme, which will not necessarily be the most effective method to tackle climate change.
India’s Quest for Jobs: A Policy Agenda. With two-thirds of the country’s population below age thirty-five, employing this massive supply of labour is, perhaps, the biggest challenge facing India for which it requires high economic growth for the next three decades that must be sustainable, broad-based, and focused on creating new jobs.
Foreign Capital Could Kick-Start the Country’s Investment Cycle. For India to become a US$5tn economy by 2024, it needs to focus on attracting foreign capital up to US$30bn every year, in addition to the usual foreign direct investment and portfolio flows, for the foreseeable future.