Pointing to the Future in February 2019
Ghosts of History: Lessons for US-China Trade War. The rivalry between China and the United States in the twenty-first century holds an uncanny resemblance to that between Germany and Great Britain in the nineteenth. There are various similarities between the two sets of rivalries primarily meant to dominate the world economy.
A Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to Waste. The U.S.-China bilateral relationship is the most consequential in the world, and the United States and China are the two most significant actors on the international stage. At the same time, China has transformed itself from a weak, poor, divided country into America’s most formidable strategic competitor.
How Europe Will Try to Dodge the US–China Standoff. While Europeans are increasingly sceptical about the Chinese leadership’s goals and methods, they do not share the Trump administration’s determination to stem China’s rise; and they do not want to find themselves trapped on one side of a new political-economic cold war.
Engaging Trump’s America. India has so far been relatively insulated from US President Donald Trump’s mercurial trade and foreign policy, but the larger problems posed by his approach to global politics will inevitably impinge on ties with India.
India’s Alliances and Strategic Autonomy. The Indian foreign policy debate would be less metaphysical if it stops obsessing about “non-alignment” and “strategic autonomy” and starts focusing on partnerships and coalitions — against current and potential threats.
Capital and Digitalpolitik in India. As India copes with the new imperatives of governing the digital age, any sensible policy will have to navigate the tensions between state and the citizen, capital and the consumer, public good and private gain and between competing interests within capital — both domestic and foreign.
Time to Redo FDI in E-Commerce in India. The government chose to endorse the marketplace model inspired by concern for the well-being of shopkeepers and small retailers. However, with each new iteration of the e-commerce regulations, the industry will find newer and more convoluted ways to fit its businesses into the regulatory requirements.
A Rough Road Ahead For Xi. With a slowing economy, slump in trade imports and exports providing the impetus for social instability, long feared by the party, 2019 may prove to be the greatest challenge to date for Xi’s leadership.
A Makeover for Chinese Macroeconomic Policy. Although a slowdown was inevitable in China after four decades of growth, the Chinese government need to stop further deceleration this year. Otherwise, China’s economic, financial, and social stability will be jeopardized.
China Can No Longer Afford an Indecisive Approach to Economic Reform. After a tumultuous 2018, during which China found itself fighting an economic slowdown coupled with an unexpected and enduring trade war, the country must continue to reform to be better prepared to handle the highs and lows of the chosen economic development model.
How India’s Economy Smoothly Navigated Troubled Waters. Despite adverse external factors through the year, combined with the domestic challenges, India remained the fastest growing major economy in the world.
Bolsonaro and Brazil’s China Dilemma. Brazil’s relations with China were lauded as the key to modernizing and placing Brazil on firm footing, as long as China’s economy grew and created demand for its exports. However, there is a concern that Bolsonaro, like his U.S. counterpart, will take a more hostile view of economic relations with China.
Russia and China Look for More Korean Gains. Notwithstanding the improvement in North Korea’s (DPRK) ties with the USA as well as the Republic of Korea (ROK), China and Russia remain their best foreign friends and developments over the last year have led to both countries becoming more optimistic and seeing opportunities for regional gains.
Apple’s Chinese Slowdown Spells Trouble for the Global Economy. Apple’s failure to meet sales expectations in China, along with other warning signs, suggests that the Chinese economy is slowing down. And as China acted as one of the main engines of the global post-2008 recovery, this spells trouble for the global economy.