greater-pacific-header
Home
The Leader and the Sign of the Times

India’s Rising, Risk Falling

India’s Rising, Risk Falling

India today continues to be the world’s fastest growing major economy. At nearly 8% annual GDP growth, India handily outgrows its closest major competitors and neighbours such as China (at c.6.0% growth) and Indonesia (at c.5.5% growth). In addition to this fundamental shift in growth, there is another equally important shift occurring, that of risk. With India entering into a phase of increasing political and economic stability, and with the momentum of structural reforms building up at a strong pace under the Modi government, the country’s fundamental risk profile is changing at the exact moment when developments in other major markets, developed and developing, are either leading to increased risk, lower growth, or both. The United States is rapidly reaching political stasis as both the executive and legislative branches find themselves encumbered by effective resistance, while the problems of Brexit and the need to rethink the European programme are creating uncertainty in the EU and the potential exhaustion of Abenomics in Japan is leading to doubts over its economic path ahead. Meanwhile, China, after two decades of rapid growth, has moved to a lower growth trajectory with an increasing risk profile. At this stage, the global risk-reward profile is fundamentally shifting, with major regions being re-rated across both axes. India appears to be a strong beneficiary, away from the global trend-line, improving its relative positioning in terms of risk-adjusted returns vis-a-vis other major markets. It is a good time for India to continue its focus on executing the reforms that address structural and systemic risks while driving economic higher to potentially double digits.

Read More
Path to Power: India’s Great Opportunity in the Changing World Order July 2017

Last month’s Sign of the Times highlighted what appear to be a series of US retreats from global leadership positions. With the geopolitical cards, apparently being reshuffled across a wide range of defence, political and economic areas, America’s apparent withdrawal is creating opportunities for countries seeking to fill the resulting void, with China currently taking the most proactive steps among the potential contenders. Beijing has already made clear its intent to play a more active role in matters of globalisation, international trade and climate change, global issues that also align well with China’s domestic agenda and where it can leverage significant political and financial assets. Despite China’s head start over others and its apparent desire to lead, its efforts will likely face not only resistance from the West but also competition from a number of countries, both within Asia and abroad. Further, China’s inability to lead on a broader set of issues related to matters such as human rights or regional security acts as a counter-weight to its leadership efforts and provides opportunities for other countries to fill the gaps being left by the United States. Among potential contenders for regional and international leadership, India, as the world’s fastest growing economy, the largest democracy and (potentially ) the most populous country, clearly has critical assets to leverage across a number of spheres. Bringing these to bear though will require India to be far more bold and strategic in handling both international affairs and in making strong domestic progress, both are matters that have proved elusive to date. However, if India can achieve this, it has the potential to create a virtuous circle of domestic development and international leadership similar to the one that has underwritten US prosperity for over two generations.

Read More
The Evolving US-China Relationship in the Age of Trump June 2017

The first 120-odd days of the Trump administration have taught us to expect the unexpected. Events are moving so quickly news and even White House officials are struggling to keep up with the new cycle. While speed and the uncertainty it brings are unsettling to many people in America, it is perhaps even more alarming to its diplomats, who have spent decades carefully crafting policies to shape the relations with both America’s partners and competitors abroad. Among these relationships, arguably none is more important than the one with China, being the defining geopolitical relationship of the first half of the 21st century given the potential of China to be a rival or an ally, and so none is more critical to keep on stable and manageable tram lines. As a 5,000 year old civilisation, China takes short term events within the context of a long-term perspective of events and relationships and defines its strategies and policies accordingly. Its current leaders have a ten-year mandate to rule without the risks and distractions of mid-term elections or legislatives controlled by opposition parties and there has developed a continuity of vision regarding China’s development that has been in place since its opening up 35 years ago.

Read More
12 Certainties with the Potential to Transform India by 2025 May 2017

Last month’s Sign of the Times focused on India’s growing links to the rest of the world, and their important role in the country’s growth and development over the near- to medium term. Looking a decade or further out however, there are a number of broader macro-themes, demographic, social, economic, and political, playing out that will fundamentally reshape India as we know it today. These themes give rise to a set of “certainties” (in so much as anything is certain in our world) that will define India in 2025 and beyond. Over the longer-term India stands to benefit significantly from the transformation these macro-themes promise to bring about. While the drivers of these trends are more or less inexorable, and their impact will inevitably continue to gather momentum, there are a number of implications for India’s policy makers over the coming years that will determine whether these certainties are harnessed to create long-term value, or remain a set of impressive but inconsequential statistics.

Read More
Good News

Good News

A quick preview of the good news

Addressing India’s Literacy Challenge

The Frontline

Addressing India’s Literacy Challenge
A brief discussion with Sourav Banerjee, India Country Director for Room to Read, a global non-profit organisation whose mission is to tackle the problem of childhood literacy across the developing world

Investing in the New India Story

The Investor

Investing in the “New India Story” – a brief guide to the key considerations
Also: Analysis of GST and its implications for investing in India

The Big Picture TEST, Metrics

The Big Picture TEST, Metrics

India’s manufacturing output eases for a fourth consecutive months on account of teething issues pertaining to the implementation of GST. The Chinese economy continues to outperform estimates, with manufacturing and trade data accelerating.

Last Month Through India’s Eyes

Last Month Through India’s Eyes

Reactions to Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the United States, multiple reports of mob violence in the country, and the new banking ordinance passed by the central government

This Month Through India’s Eyes

This Month Through India’s Eyes

Reactions to the on-going military standoff between India and China, the recently concluded presidential elections in India and to the change in government in Bihar

Pointing to the Future

Pointing to the Future

The US-India relationship, the changing face of work in India, Beijing’s Balkan Backdoor to Europe, China harnesses A.I. and Big Data for domestic surveillance, India’s strategic artificial intelligence vision

Big News

Big News

Indian national security advisor to meet Xi Jinping over border dispute, Fresh unrest in Darjeeling, India launches solar dumping probe, Sino-Russian naval drill in Baltic, Wanda sells US$9.3bn of assets, Senior Chinese official caught in corruption investigation

About Greater Pacific

Greater Pacific Capital is an investing institution designed to identify and develop investing opportunities based on the use of distinctive global macro thematic thinking, strategy development and the application of capital to its selected target markets Read More

vision and history

To create the leading platform to finance the growth and international positioning of enterprises in its target areas which for its first funds are in India and establish other links with global economies Read More

ideas and thinking

Succeeding in situations that are dynamically shaped by the aspirations of rising peoples, their society, markets and rapidly changing environments - where rules seem to apply but are often rewritten and so require unusual thinking. Read More

investments

We recognise the complex, nascent and rapidly developing and volatile nature of this ancient country's modern markets and economy as they grow and expand internationally and seek to work as partners with leaders who wish to create value from ideas. Read More

team

Our people are international and local, measured and open, imaginative and mathematical, a team and individuals, principals and counsel, skilled and learning... learning to open their own boundaries and others. Read More

philosophy

Our philosophy guides us and also places high demands upon us as we journey in a world that is changing dramatically all around us ... we endeavour to appreciate that the journey itself will make us more fit to journey. Read More

our locations

Greater Pacific Capital operates out of offices in Mumbai, Shanghai, Singapore and London. The firm's investors are international including from the US, Canada, Japan, Europe and the Middle East. Read More