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Briefing: India-Pakistan Conflict – An Inflection Point?

Briefing: India-Pakistan Conflict – An Inflection Point?

The crisis which unfolded between India and Pakistan in Kashmir at the end of last month captured the top of global news headlines, pushing aside the failed US-North Korean nuclear summit, the unfolding crisis in Venezuela and the unending Brexit. India and Pakistan carried out air raids inside each other's countries for the first time since the 1971 war and raised fears of a major military escalation between the two nuclear-armed nations. New Delhi and Islamabad also engaged in a battle of conflicting military claims, obscuring many of the facts around what actually happened for the domestic and global public. What is known is that the conflict was triggered by a terrorist attack on Indian paramilitary forces in Kashmir which killed 49 soldiers on February 14th. Jaish-e-Mohammed (“JeM”), an Islamist group which operates out of Pakistan claimed responsibility for the attack. This attack triggered a vigorous response by India, which launched an airstrike into Pakistan, allegedly on a large JeM terrorist training camp. While the narrative around events begins to diverge here, it appears that the Pakistani air force retaliated by sending aircraft of its own against targets across the Line of Control with the aim of targeting military installations, with the resulting engagement leading to the shooting down of one Pakistani and at least one Indian jet over Pakistani airspace, taking the pilot prisoner.

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India’s Journey to a US$5tn Economy: Growth Beyond Policy February 2019

As the world’s fastest growing major economy, India’s GDP is on a path to overtake the United States’ and become the world’s second largest (behind China) by 2030 . India’s growth momentum today has reached a tipping point. It took India fifty years following independence from British rule to scale to a US$1 trillion economy in 2007. The next trillion, however, had been added by 2014, only seven years later, and based on its current growth trajectory, India’s economy is on track to cross US$3 trillion by the end of 2019. Further, the compounding effect of India’s rapid economic growth means that these time increments will shorten yet further, with the journey from US$3 trillion to US$4 trillion taking three years and the next trillion thereafter only two. With a general election scheduled for later this year, one can expect considerable debate about the policies that have helped, or hindered, India on its path. However, leaving aside the value destruction in the pre-Modi Congress government, when looking across cycles over the past 30 years or so, it is clear that governments under both parties have presided over periods of high growth. And while the economic policies and reforms implemented by particular governments have certainly played an important role, it is clear that the underlying drivers for India’s remarkable growth include some important macro-factors that have transcended governments’ priorities and policies; ‘Growth Beyond Policy’ is a key requirement for major economies, especially in these times where policy seems more partisan, confrontational and risky

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The Key Issues Shaping 2019 January 2019

The Sign of the Times’s final Leader of the year provides a window onto the coming year. As in previous years, the paper presents the key themes or events with the potential to shape the world, markets and lives during the next 12 months and beyond. 2019 promises to be as turbulent a year as 2018 has been, which has seen a US government shutdown, senior US cabinet member departures, a US-China trade war. At this transition from the old year to the new, we would like to pause and examine more closely ten events in the coming year that will have a potentially significant impact on peace, prosperity and happiness around the world. The context is that of the world in the throes of several transitions, the decline of the western liberal order, the shift from industrial to information-based economies and societies and the geopolitical realignment arising from the decline in the West relative to China’s and other emerging markets growth. As a result, international institutions, nations, governments, corporations and individuals are suffering the overthrow of widely accepted rules and conventions which look set to continue to transform the world order. While it is uncertain what the cumulative impact of these changes on the world might be, it is clear that they represent fundamental risks to growth and stability and that the changes they are ushering in are set to be a painful one as irreconcilable division seems to be the norm within and across nations and communities, Accordingly, this month’s Sign seeks to identify the key events that look set to shape 2019 as well as the competing world views that are shaping them, and to draw out the potential implications for the year ahead. Wishing you a prosperous and happy 2019!

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Global Cyber Rivalry Challenges American Geopolitical Leadership December 2018

The overthrow of the current world order and the leader of the next may well be determined by the winner of cyber warfare. America’s current capabilities in this respect do not assure it of that role. In fact, with every transaction that America executes as part of ‘America First’, it undermines the current world order, and potentially furthers the position of its rivals, leaving the US and its allies open to state and asymmetric cyber-attacks. Leveraging cyber technology and the possibilities that it offers, China and Russia have a unique opportunity to precipitate the decline of American power in the first half of the 21st century, aided by a wide array of independent and semi-independent that see America as a target to be assaulted. Should America’s allies, given their dislike of the current administration’s style and rhetoric, choose to quietly celebrate its losses from the sidelines, their democracy and freedoms are also at risk. Further, lest America’s foes gloat, America will not go quietly and perceive their very existence as a threat by it. This paper examines critical recent developments in the cyber arena, the components, catalysts and drivers of its rapid development and the risks it poses for the world, pointing to the need for a a global cyber security order. America’s leadership represents that best chance the world has for creating a stable cyber order as part of the emergence of a new world order.

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Good News

Good News

A quick preview of the good news

Addressing India’s Literacy Challenge

The Frontline

Addressing India’s Literacy Challenge
A brief discussion with Sourav Banerjee, India Country Director for Room to Read, a global non-profit organisation whose mission is to tackle the problem of childhood literacy across the developing world

Investing in the New India Story

The Investor

Investing in the “New India Story” – our detailed thoughts on the opportunity and challenges of investing in India

The Big Picture TEST, Metrics

The Big Picture TEST, Metrics

Robust Indian manufacturing growth, Exports expand moderately, RBI softens approach to interest rates, China reinforces fears over slowdown with manufacturing and trade contraction

Last Month Through India’s Eyes

Last Month Through India’s Eyes

Tightening FDI Regulations in India’s E-commerce Sector, A New Bill on Affirmative Action, Minimum Income Scheme Proposed by the Congress Party

This Month Through India’s Eyes

This Month Through India’s Eyes

Indian press voices on the Pakistan Crisis, including the Pulwama terrorist attack, the Indian airstrike and the capture and release of the Indian pilot

Pointing to the Future

Pointing to the Future

The Problem with India’s ‘AI for All’ Strategy, India Begins Expanding its Diplomatic Footprint in Africa, China Slowdown Presents India An Opportunity to Shine, India’s New ‘Attack’ on Air Pollution

Big News

Big News

India, Saudi Arabia Broaden Strategic Ties, India’s Q3 GDP Grows By 6.6%, US Considers Withdrawal of Zero Tariffs for India, Venezuela Planning to Double Exports to India, ‘Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act’ Introduced in Congress, India and Russia Set to Ink US$3bn Submarine Deal

About Greater Pacific

Greater Pacific Capital is an investing institution designed to identify and develop investing opportunities based on the use of distinctive global macro thematic thinking, strategy development and the application of capital to its selected target markets Read More

vision and history

To create the leading platform to finance the growth and international positioning of enterprises in its target areas which for its first funds are in India and establish other links with global economies Read More

ideas and thinking

Succeeding in situations that are dynamically shaped by the aspirations of rising peoples, their society, markets and rapidly changing environments - where rules seem to apply but are often rewritten and so require unusual thinking. Read More

investments

We recognise the complex, nascent and rapidly developing and volatile nature of this ancient country's modern markets and economy as they grow and expand internationally and seek to work as partners with leaders who wish to create value from ideas. Read More

team

Our people are international and local, measured and open, imaginative and mathematical, a team and individuals, principals and counsel, skilled and learning... learning to open their own boundaries and others. Read More

philosophy

Our philosophy guides us and also places high demands upon us as we journey in a world that is changing dramatically all around us ... we endeavour to appreciate that the journey itself will make us more fit to journey. Read More

our locations

Greater Pacific Capital operates out of offices in Mumbai, Shanghai, Singapore and London. The firm's investors are international including from the US, Canada, Japan, Europe and the Middle East. Read More