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The Leader and the Sign of the Times

The Key Issues Shaping 2019

The Key Issues Shaping 2019

The Sign of the Times’s final Leader of the year provides a window onto the coming year. As in previous years, the paper presents the key themes or events with the potential to shape the world, markets and lives during the next 12 months and beyond. 2019 promises to be as turbulent a year as 2018 has been, which has seen a US government shutdown, senior US cabinet member departures, a US-China trade war. At this transition from the old year to the new, we would like to pause and examine more closely ten events in the coming year that will have a potentially significant impact on peace, prosperity and happiness around the world. The context is that of the world in the throes of several transitions, the decline of the western liberal order, the shift from industrial to information-based economies and societies and the geopolitical realignment arising from the decline in the West relative to China’s and other emerging markets growth. As a result, international institutions, nations, governments, corporations and individuals are suffering the overthrow of widely accepted rules and conventions which look set to continue to transform the world order. While it is uncertain what the cumulative impact of these changes on the world might be, it is clear that they represent fundamental risks to growth and stability and that the changes they are ushering in are set to be a painful one as irreconcilable division seems to be the norm within and across nations and communities, Accordingly, this month’s Sign seeks to identify the key events that look set to shape 2019 as well as the competing world views that are shaping them, and to draw out the potential implications for the year ahead. Wishing you a prosperous and happy 2019!

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Global Cyber Rivalry Challenges American Geopolitical Leadership December 2018

The overthrow of the current world order and the leader of the next may well be determined by the winner of cyber warfare. America’s current capabilities in this respect do not assure it of that role. In fact, with every transaction that America executes as part of ‘America First’, it undermines the current world order, and potentially furthers the position of its rivals, leaving the US and its allies open to state and asymmetric cyber-attacks. Leveraging cyber technology and the possibilities that it offers, China and Russia have a unique opportunity to precipitate the decline of American power in the first half of the 21st century, aided by a wide array of independent and semi-independent that see America as a target to be assaulted. Should America’s allies, given their dislike of the current administration’s style and rhetoric, choose to quietly celebrate its losses from the sidelines, their democracy and freedoms are also at risk. Further, lest America’s foes gloat, America will not go quietly and perceive their very existence as a threat by it. This paper examines critical recent developments in the cyber arena, the components, catalysts and drivers of its rapid development and the risks it poses for the world, pointing to the need for a a global cyber security order. America’s leadership represents that best chance the world has for creating a stable cyber order as part of the emergence of a new world order.

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Rising Global Risk (and its Implications for India) November 2018

The decade that has followed the global financial crisis of 2008 has been characterised by relatively steady, if uneven global growth. Buoyed by positive macro-economic trends, global equity markets reached all-time highs, and total global wealth reached US$280tn (27% higher than at the onset of the economic crisis). India also witnessed a recovery in economic growth levels, back to c. 8% levels helped by the global economic resurgence, the reform-agenda of the Modi new government, robust foreign direct investment flows and falling oil prices. Recently, however, cracks have begun to emerge in the global economy, driven by rising political uncertainty around the world, on-going trade disputes between the United States and China and financial instability across several emerging markets (including Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Venezuela). India, given its inherent resilience and growth prospects, has the potential to buck the trend the of global capital flight from emerging markets if it is able to maintain its reforms and growth and thereby reassure investors that it is a relatively safer emerging market than others for international capital.

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Transforming India’s Growth Model October 2018

Last month’s Sign of the Times benchmarked the economic performance of the current government against both its Congress and BJP predecessors over the past 25 years. Among the key takeaways of this analysis was the observation that there have been a number of Indian governments that have delivered growth and Mr. Modi’s government benchmarks well relative to them. Mr. Modi’s supporters believe that his government’s policies are the basis of sustainable growth trajectory based on having laid the foundation for a structural step-up in the country’s development. India’s macro-economic drivers – its population, demographics, urbanisation trends, education, among other major factors – point to a country with double digit GDP growth potential under a government with the right policies and economic development strategies. While previous governments have briefly achieved these growth rates on the back of massive stimulus or global economic booms, neither party to date has been able to construct an economic strategy or model that has delivered this growth consistently or sustainably.

As mentioned in last month’s Sign, voters in next year’s general election will need to form a view on, among other things, the economic agendas of the different parties to determine who can better pick up where the current government will have left off. Real leadership is more likely based on a clear vision of an India that has realized its potential and clarity on the political, social and economic components that will deliver this vision. India’s model will need to do more than simply deliver increased growth rates: it will need to respond to and where possible leverage the major geopolitical, economic and technological shifts underway and place the country into a position of strength in a world that is currently witnessing the passing of its current world order and the longer-term shift from the industrial to the information age.

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Good News

Good News

A quick preview of the good news

Addressing India’s Literacy Challenge

The Frontline

Addressing India’s Literacy Challenge
A brief discussion with Sourav Banerjee, India Country Director for Room to Read, a global non-profit organisation whose mission is to tackle the problem of childhood literacy across the developing world

Investing in the New India Story

The Investor

Investing in the “New India Story” – our detailed thoughts on the opportunity and challenges of investing in India

The Big Picture TEST, Metrics

The Big Picture TEST, Metrics

Manufacturing growth hits 11 month high in India, with both imports and exports registering expansion during the month of November. Chinese manufacturing activity on the other hand was flat during the same period, against analyst forecasts of slight expansion, although trade continued to expand during the month.

Last Month Through India’s Eyes

Last Month Through India’s Eyes

Mike Pence’s speech on the US-China relationship, the announcement of Xinjiang detention camps and death of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi while in custody in the Saudi consulate

This Month Through India’s Eyes

This Month Through India’s Eyes

India’s Appoints New Governor for the Reserve Bank of India, Analysis of the Recently Concluded State Elections, UK Court Orders Extradition of Absconding Businessman Vijay Mallya

Pointing to the Future

Pointing to the Future

Climate change leadership without American government, China and Internet governance, Fueling a new low carbon growth model in India, The tech wars are here, The Trump-Xi trade war truce, The brute power behind China’s South China Seas grab

Big News

Big News

Congress Party wins key state elections, New governor for the Reserve Bank of India, India and China resume joint military drills, China bans domestic iPhone sales, China buys US soybeans in trade war truce, China cuts car tariffs by 15%

About Greater Pacific

Greater Pacific Capital is an investing institution designed to identify and develop investing opportunities based on the use of distinctive global macro thematic thinking, strategy development and the application of capital to its selected target markets Read More

vision and history

To create the leading platform to finance the growth and international positioning of enterprises in its target areas which for its first funds are in India and establish other links with global economies Read More

ideas and thinking

Succeeding in situations that are dynamically shaped by the aspirations of rising peoples, their society, markets and rapidly changing environments - where rules seem to apply but are often rewritten and so require unusual thinking. Read More

investments

We recognise the complex, nascent and rapidly developing and volatile nature of this ancient country's modern markets and economy as they grow and expand internationally and seek to work as partners with leaders who wish to create value from ideas. Read More

team

Our people are international and local, measured and open, imaginative and mathematical, a team and individuals, principals and counsel, skilled and learning... learning to open their own boundaries and others. Read More

philosophy

Our philosophy guides us and also places high demands upon us as we journey in a world that is changing dramatically all around us ... we endeavour to appreciate that the journey itself will make us more fit to journey. Read More

our locations

Greater Pacific Capital operates out of offices in Mumbai, Shanghai, Singapore and London. The firm's investors are international including from the US, Canada, Japan, Europe and the Middle East. Read More