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India-International: How India’s Links to the World Create Value and Drive Development

India-International: How India’s Links to the World Create Value and Drive Development

There has been much discussion about the “India Story” and the key drivers of the world’s second most populous nation’s gradually accelerating growth path. The conventional wisdom is that India’s growth is being driven by its burgeoning young, working age population (the “demographic dividend”) which is creating a growing middle class with increasing purchasing power driving India’s rise. This in turn gives rise to a number of investment themes which point policy and investors to focus on backing incumbents in the domestic market: domestic consumption including organised retail, healthcare, education and financial services, the creation of infrastructure among others. However, despite the rapid growth at a macro level, many of these themes have failed to deliver scaled and rapid change over many decades and consequently have failed to deliver consistent returns, leaving many investors in India disappointed.

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The Shape of the World to Come – Part III: The Path to a New World Order March 2017

The third part in the series on ‘The Shape of the World to Come’ attempts to describe the transition to and the shape of the New World Order. The first part had looked at the positive long term development trends taking place in the world today, providing historic breakthroughs in increasing material benefits on a global scale. The second part looked at the contrasting challenges, both shorter and long term, facing the world, many of which are unintended but direct consequences of the order and system that has enabled the benefits we enjoy today. Looking at these challenges and the pressures that they create it is clear that we live in revolutionary times, and that the world order that has governed the world for decades is coming to an end. This longer-term process is being further exacerbated by current events, with the instability and uncertainty being caused by the Trump Administration serving as a potential catalyst for the demise of the current world order and a harbinger of the transition to come, although the reality of where the Trump Administration are far more complex. In the third part of the series we try to draw out how these current events might impact the larger framework of global change taking place, describing the both transition scenarios the world might face as well as the ultimate result. We also seek to put the current shifts underway within the frameworks the describe the broader sweep of history. What is clear though is that the personal and collective choices we make today have the potential to shape the world for decades to come.

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India’s Demonetisation Scheme: A High Stakes Move to Attack India’s Informal Economy February 2017

India’s demonetisation scheme announced at the end of 2016 is perhaps the boldest move made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since taking office in 2014. In a surprise and globally unprecedented action, at least on this scale, the government cancelled all high value currency notes in circulation in an attempt to rein in unaccounted cash wealth, fight corruption, increase the size of formal economy and kick start India’s transition to a cashless society. Mr. Modi’s scheme is particularly bold given the Indian economy’s high dependence on cash transactions and the significant portion of legal tender affected by demonetisation, estimated at 86% of the total value of notes in circulation. While the initial public reaction was positive, public sentiments have turned critical due to the inevitable implementation issues associated with secrecy, the resulting economic hardship felt by the poorest and the growing view that the corrupt had found loopholes to evade the pain. Despite these challenges, the move provide a clear signal of the government’s intent to eliminate graft and improve transparency, and is potentially a harbinger of further reforms and measures to come. Further action is clearly needed; while demonetisation has had a significant short-term effect on the size of the underground economy and unaccounted cash, the government will need to not only follow up with aggressive action against other sources of illegal wealth, it will also need to address with the same sense of urgency the structural root causes that give rise to corruption as well as create the financial systems necessary to handle the massive inflows of capital that the formalisation of India’s economy will bring. If India can effectively channel these inflows and repair what has become a corrupt system such that capital is channelled to the most productive uses, it has the potential to accelerate GDP growth to in excess of 10% annually over the next decade and more importantly remove a corrosive influence which has damaged the nation at all levels. However, the timing for addressing these issues is urgent and the price of failure is a steep one. A failure to follow through on this bold move with the necessary follow-on actions required to quickly revive GDP growth and achieve the stated objectives may risk derailing the economic momentum that India’s economy was building prior to demonetisation by undermining the government’s credibility as an agent of reforms. Therefore, this presents the most important political challenge for Mr. Modi in the next general election due in two years’ time and one of the biggest opportunities in modern times to put India onto the right course.

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The Shape of the World to Come – Part II:  The Key Challenges Facing the World January 2017

Late last year the Sign of the Times examined the positive trends that have shaped our world. Many of these positive forces however have brought with them a growing number of issues that cannot be ignored. Global prosperity overall is on the rise while the wealth gap between the rich and the poor around the world continues to widen, international interconnectedness brings new nations into a more prosperous era while take jobs away from the first wave of modern industrial nations, technology continues to provide both advancements in living standards and decimate traditional manufacturing jobs and growing consumption offers advancements in living standards to the newly prosperous while placing an increasing strain on the world’s natural resources. This month’s Sign, the second in a three-part series, examines the most pressing challenges that the world faces today, evaluating their potential impact over the next decade. A further paper, the final part of the series, will seek to combine the impact of the long-term trends and current challenges to put forward a perspective on the shape of the world to come.

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Good News

Good News

A quick preview of the good news

Addressing India’s Literacy Challenge

The Frontline

Addressing India’s Literacy Challenge
A brief discussion with Sourav Banerjee, India Country Director for Room to Read, a global non-profit organisation whose mission is to tackle the problem of childhood literacy across the developing world

Investing in the New India Story

The Investor

Investing in the “New India Story” – a brief guide to the key considerations
Also: Analysis of GST and its implications for investing in India

The Big Picture TEST, Metrics

The Big Picture TEST, Metrics

Indian factor output in February expands, with imports and exports up 18% and 22%, respectively amid strong international portfolio inflows contributing. Better than expected factory output in China offset by uneven trade data, with exports declining 1% in February

Last Month Through India’s Eyes

Last Month Through India’s Eyes

Civic body elections in Maharashtra, Massive layoffs at Snapdeal, Hate crime in US kills Indian

This Month Through India’s Eyes

This Month Through India’s Eyes

Uttar Pradesh Assembly election outcomes, Government amendment to the Finance Bill

Pointing to the Future

Pointing to the Future

How Narendra Modi’s gamble in Uttar Pradesh paid off, Why India should scrap parliamentary democracy, Indian-EU collaboration on Afghanistan, China’s path to the rule of law, Can China save the global order?

Big News

Big News

Indian railway privatisation, Vodafone-Idea Cellular merger, Volkswagen-Tata Motors partnership in India, China vetos UN sanctions on Syria, Trade deficit in China

About Greater Pacific

Greater Pacific Capital is an investing institution designed to identify and develop investing opportunities based on the use of distinctive global macro thematic thinking, strategy development and the application of capital to its selected target markets Read More

vision and history

To create the leading platform to finance the growth and international positioning of enterprises in its target areas which for its first funds are in India and establish other links with global economies Read More

ideas and thinking

Succeeding in situations that are dynamically shaped by the aspirations of rising peoples, their society, markets and rapidly changing environments - where rules seem to apply but are often rewritten and so require unusual thinking. Read More

investments

We recognise the complex, nascent and rapidly developing and volatile nature of this ancient country's modern markets and economy as they grow and expand internationally and seek to work as partners with leaders who wish to create value from ideas. Read More

team

Our people are international and local, measured and open, imaginative and mathematical, a team and individuals, principals and counsel, skilled and learning... learning to open their own boundaries and others. Read More

philosophy

Our philosophy guides us and also places high demands upon us as we journey in a world that is changing dramatically all around us ... we endeavour to appreciate that the journey itself will make us more fit to journey. Read More

our locations

Greater Pacific Capital operates out of offices in Mumbai, Shanghai, Singapore and London. The firm's investors are international including from the US, Canada, Japan, Europe and the Middle East. Read More