Certainties in Times of Uncertainty, Summary. The GPC team describes the “certainties” that provide a reliable reference point, for long range planning for our political, economic, military, societal, environmental and personal affairs. Barring Hollywood style world-ending scenarios, which we clearly cannot rule out especially in a distributed nuclear weapons world, the longer term shape of the world is clearer than many believe. Today, two factors for change stand above the rest in our world today. The first is the increased consciousness of peoples around the world on their own relative position and the resulting demand for human rights and opportunity. The second is the dilemma of scarcity in the face of growing demand which we can expect to be accentuated as prosperity increases. In the absence of a more fundamental shift in leadership values and innovation these two forces are set to be enduring disruptive features of our world. The baseline for our world is set to be driven by demands (for increased freedoms and opportunities) that cannot be easily met (because of scarcity and dislocation in the timing of cheap delivery of resources and food). This implies either a period of deep change due to competition and confrontation or one of sharing based on our deep interdependence. The outcome will be delivered through swings between these two extremes.
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