Home

The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others

 

The TEST

The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

India’s economy grew at 5% in the June quarter, its slowest pace in over six years following a sharp deceleration in consumer demand and tepid investment.  However, the series of economic measures announced by the government over the previous month including major tax reforms is expected to drive growth back on track over the coming months. The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.4 in August (vs. 52.5 in July), but remained in expansion territory, indicating that gauges of factory orders, production, employment were up. On the trade front, both exports and imports declined by 6.0% and 13.5%, respectively over the same period last year. There was no further change in interest rates since the RBI’s repo rate cut in August.

China’s manufacturing activity expanded in August but both exports and imports declined due to the impact of rising trade tensions with the US. The Official China Manufacturing PMI reading for the month came in at 50.4, higher that economists’ expectations of 49.8 in July. On the trade front, exports and imports declined by 1.0% and 5.6%, respectively over the same period last year.

 

Big Pic Test Image Oct 2019

 

Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

©2019 Greater Pacific Capital