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The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others

The TEST

The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

 

India’s economy grew slower than expected to a 20-quarter low of 5.8% in the January-March period largely due to poor performance in agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI recorded a slight decrease at 51.7 in April (vs. 52.7 in March), but remained in expansion territory, while exports and imports increased by 0.6% and 4.5% respectively, over the same period last year.  No further change in interest rates was observed since Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate cut in March.

While the Chinese economy showed signs of recovery in April, the US imposing 25% tariffs on US$200bn of Chinese exports is expected to lower output by c.0.5% from China over the next two years, relative to a no-trade-war scenario. Manufacturing activity for the month continuing to expand following five consecutive months of contraction until March and imports registering growth. The Official China Manufacturing PMI reading for the month came in at 50.1, lower than analyst expectations of 50.5 in March, but reflecting an expansion in factory output. On the trade front, while exports declined by 2.8%, imports grew by 4.0%, over the same period last year.

 

  Big Pic Test Table

Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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