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The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others

The TEST

The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

The Indian economy continued to perform well in December, despite a slight reduction in imports, with growth in the manufacturing sector and exports. The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI grew to 53.2 in December (vs. 54.0 in November), remaining in expansion territory, with growth stronger than seen at the start of the year. On the trade front, imports disappointed, decreasing by -2.5% over the same period last year, but exports increased by 0.3%. No further change in interest rates was observed since Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate increase in early August.

China’s economy witnessed a downturn in December, with manufacturing activity contracting and both, exports and imports, registering decline. The Official China Manufacturing PMI reading for the month came in at 49.4, lower than analyst expectations of 49.9 in December, reflecting a contraction in factory output for the first time in two years. On the trade front, exports and imports witnessed a decline by -4.4% and -7.6% respectively, over the same period last year.

Big Pic Test Image Feb 2019

 

Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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