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The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others

The TEST

The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

The Indian economy continued to perform well in June, despite a slight reduction in trade with growth in the manufacturing sector. The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI recorded a slight decrease at 52.1 in June (vs. 52.7 in May), but remained in expansion territory, indicating that gauges of factory orders, production, employment were up. On the trade front, exports and imports decline by 9.7% and 9.1% respectively, over the same period last year. No further change in interest rates was observed since Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate cut in June.

China’s factory activity unexpectedly shrank in June as domestic and export demand faltered, pointing to further strains on its vast manufacturing sector as the Sino-U.S. trade war drags on. The Official China Manufacturing PMI reading for the month came in at 49.4, the worst reading since January and below economists’ expectations of 50.0 in May. On the trade front, while exports and imports declined by 1.3% and 7.3%, over the same period last year.

 

Big Pic Test Sign August 2019 IMAGE

Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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