The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others


The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.


The Indian economy continued its strong performance in February, with factory output expanding for a second consecutive month, strong trade and equity market performance, and the strengthening of the currency.  The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.7 in February (from 50.4 in January), with higher levels of manufacturing being reported for the second month running.  Trade performance for the month was also impressive with exports and imports increasing by 18% and 22% over the same period last year.  International investor interest remains high in India, with approximately US$1.5bn in international equity investment inflows in February, and this in turn contributed to the Indian rupee strengthening by almost 2% against the US dollar during the month.


Economic recovery in China remained mixed in February, with better than expected factory output being offset by uneven trade data.  The Official Manufacturing PMI for the month came in at 51.7 (vs. 51.3 in January), beating analyst forecasts as Chinese construction firms continued to benefit from a recovery in demand in the country’s construction sector.  However, trade performance for the month was uneven, with exports declining by 1%, but imports increasing by 38% in February over the same period last year.


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Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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