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The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others

The TEST

The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

 

India’s economic recovery continued in November with an expansion in manufacturing activity, and robust trade growth.  The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI rose to a 13-month high of 52.6 (vs. 50.3 in October), with growth in new and existing orders accelerating as disruptions from the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax continue to decrease.  There was further positive news on the trade front, with exports and imports increasing by 31% and 20% respectively, over the same period last year.  Despite these positives, however, inflation has been steadily increasing, and although it is still within the Reserve Bank of India’s target range, the central bank decided against raising interest rates at its latest monetary policy meet.

 

Factory output in China in November exceeded expectations, with the Official Manufacturing PMI coming in at 51.8 for the month (vs. consensus estimates of 51.4).  The country also carried forward its positive trade momentum from the previous month, with exports and imports growing by 12% and 19% respectively over the same period last year.

 

 Big pic test table

 

Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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