The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade
American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others
The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations. The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends. We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.
India’s GDP expanded by 6.1% for the first quarter of 2017 (vs. 7% in the last quarter of 2016), with The Indian economy was a mixed bag in May, with positive trade data offset by a slight dip in factory output. India’s trade has performed positively over the last eight months, and this trend continued in May, with exports increasing by 8%, driven by growth across all commodity groups, and imports increasing by 33% on account of higher petroleum and electronics imports. Manufacturing activity in India slowed to a three month low in May, with the Nikkei Markit India PMI declining from 52.5 to 51.6. However, despite this slowdown, manufacturing still remained in expansion mode for the fifth consecutive month, and a combination of new product launches, machinery acquisitions and higher ad spends is expected to drive output going forward.
China’s trade performance in May beat analyst expectations, but this positive news was tempered by a contraction in factory output for the month. Exports and imports beat analyst estimates and increased by 9% and 15% respectively, driven by an improvement in global demand, and greater resilience in China’s domestic economy. Unfortunately, manufacturing data for the month did not reflect a similar positive trend, with the Caixin Markit Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.6 (from 50.3 in April) – an 11 month low.
Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data
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