The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others


The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

The Indian economy in February witnessed a slight reduction in imports, with growth in the manufacturing sector and exports.  The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI grew to 54.3 in February (vs. 53.9 in January), remaining in expansion territory, indicating stronger improvement in the health of the goods producing sector.  On the trade front, imports disappointed, decreasing by 4.8% over the same period last year, but exports increased by 2.5%. No further change in interest rates was observed since Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate increase in February.

China’s performance in February reinforced fears of a deepening slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, with manufacturing activity contracting by the third straight month and both exports and imports registering declines.  The official China Manufacturing PMI reading for the month came in at 49.9, better than analyst expectations of 48.5 in February, but reflecting contractionary levels not seen since early 2016.  On the trade front, both exports and imports disappointed, decreasing by 20.8% and 5.2% over the same period last year.


Big Pic Test Table April


Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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