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The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others

The TEST

The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

 

India in October continued its recovering momentum in economy activities, after registering the lowest GDP growth in three years in the quarter ended June 30.  Factory output remained positive, with the Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI posting a reading of 51.2 (vs. 51.2 in August), albeit below market estimates of 51.9. Trade Indicators are encouraging, with exports and imports increasing by 26% and 18% over the same period last year. No further decrease in interest rates was observed since Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate cut in August.

China’s economy stabilised in September, with Q3 GDP growth reading 6.8% (vs. 6.9% in Q2). The Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.0 in September, below market forecast of 51.5 (vs. 51.6 in August). On the trade front, China maintained the growth trend in August, with exports and imports in September increasing by 8% and 19% over the same period last year, respectively.

 

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Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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