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The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others

The TEST

The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.

A slowdown in business activity in the aftermath of the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) continued to impede the Indian economy’s growth in July.  GDP growth for the quarter ended June slowed to a 3-year low of 5.7%.  The slowdown was largely on account of a decline in gross value add from the manufacturing sector, as business focused on clearing existing inventories, rather than production, ahead of the implementation of GST (which took place on July 1).  Factory output for the month also suffered, with the Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI falling to 47.9 (from 50.9) in June – its lowest mark since February 2009.  Despite these negatives, trade performance was robust, with exports and imports increasing by 4% and 15% respectively.  The government has re-iterated that the current slowdown in economic activity is temporary as businesses adjust to a new tax regime, and remains confident of meeting its growth targets for the full year.

The Chinese economy fared well in July, with increases in factory output and trade data.  The Caixin Manufacturing PMI beat analyst forecasts and accelerated to a four month high of 51.1 (from 50.4 in June), driven by strong international demand.  There was further positive news on the trade front, with exports and imports increasing by 6% and 11% over the same period last year.

 

 Big Pic Test

 

Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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