The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade

American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others


The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations.  The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends.  We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.


Economic growth in India slowed to 7% for the quarter ended December 2016 (vs. 7.3% for the previous quarter), largely on account of a temporary slowdown in consumer spending in light of the government’s demonetisation scheme.  Despite this slowdown, however, India retained its position as the world’s fastest growing major economy, and the strength of the economy was further underlined by manufacturing and trade data.  After two consecutive months of contraction on account of demonetisation, the Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in January (from 49.6), with a rise in both existing and new orders.  There was also positive news on the trade front in January, with exports and imports increasing by 4% and 10% respectively over the same period last year.


The Chinese economy continued to show signs of revival in January, highlighted by positive manufacturing and trade data.  Factory output continued to expand in January, with the official manufacturing PMI coming in at 51.3 (vs. 51.4 in December), ahead of analyst estimates for the month.  China also performed better than expected on the trade front, with exports and imports increasing by 8% and 17% in January, over the same period last year.



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 Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data

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