The rise of the BRICs, especially China and India, and the end of the American Century is a topic that has occupied policy makers, economists and investors throughout the past decade
American leadership and power is diversified across multiple areas, and while these areas are interrelated, a shift in performance across one or several does not necessarily indicate a general “American Decline” or the inevitability of the ascendancy of others
The TEST is a test of broad development of the nations. The TEST looks at the performance of countries from the perspective of Trade and Macro, Equity Markets, Society and Trends. We have taken a limited number of indicators to form the cut of the TEST below.
The Indian economy continued to perform well in February, despite a slight reduction in manufacturing, with robust trade growth and reduction in retail inflation. The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI fell marginally to 52.1 in February (vs. 52.4 in January) but these key PMI indicators registered in expansion territory signalling the sector stayed on its track to recovery. There was positive news on the trade front, with exports and imports increasing by 5% and 10% respectively, over the same period last year. Retail inflation in India fell to 4.44% in February from 5.07% in January. No further decrease in interest rates was observed since Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate cut in August.
China’s economic performance remained steady in February, with manufacturing activity expanding at a slightly lower pace than previous months, but exports and imports registering growth. The Official China Manufacturing PMI reading for the month came in at 50.3, lower that analyst expectations of 51.2 in January, but still reflected an expansion in factory output. On the trade front, exports and imports witnessed a significant increase by 43% and 7% respectively, over the same period last year.
Note: Monthly macro-economic and market figures are typically released one to two weeks after the close of each month. Accordingly, the Monthly Indicators track the previous month’s data
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