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Pointing to the Future

Implications of the US-China Trade Dispute.  Donald Trump has unleashed a wave of tariffs over the past year against many of its largest trading partners.  The rest of the world now confronts choices about how best to respond, in what areas, and with what adjustments to trade and economic policy.

India’s Rising Power as the World’s Largest Democracy.  As the world’s largest democracy that is also home to the world’s largest number of impoverished people, India is variously described as a model of soft power, or a country that makes remarkably poor use of it.  Both views may to true.

A Giant Slowly Rises.  For Southeast Asia to the Indian Ocean, India’s reach is growing – sometimes incrementally but sometimes significantly.

Incumbency in India – More Curse Than Blessing.  The BJP is the front-runner in India’s 2019 elections, but its political standing suggests that dominance could be a liability rather than an asset.

In Interpol Chief’s Disappearance, China’s Message to The World—Party Comes First.  The message from Interpol president Meng Hongwei’s detainment in an extrajudicial corruption process is that the party will always come first, no matter international expectation or international norms.

The (Unlikely) Solution to the US-China Trade War.  The trade war really is on — counterproductive and unnecessary and yet likely to last, but there are better options to address the White House’s concerns — including by turning to the World Trade Organization (W.T.O.).

US China Relations – is it Time to End the Engagement?  Intensive engagement with China, which has been a foundation of U.S. policy since President Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit, is under attack by critics of U.S. policy who seek to disengage the two countries. (link to PDF download)

Is the BJP India’s New Hegemon?  The BJP’s emerging hegemony should not be conflated with electoral invincibility. As recent elections have demonstrated in states such as Bihar, Delhi, and Karnataka, the party is fallible.

A Key Problem of Our Time: A Conversation with Henry Kissinger on Sino-US Relations.  The grandfather of US engagement with modern China speaks to the challenges and opportunities of Sino-US relations on the 50th anniversary of the Wilson Center.

China’s Great Leap Backward.  For decades, the country managed to avoid most problems suffered by dictatorships. Now Xi Jinping’s personal power play risks undermining everything that made China exceptional.

Why Containing China is Easier Said Than Done.  In order to effectively contain China, as he appears to be currently trying to do, Donald Trump must get buy-in from his cabinet, both houses of Congress, and from everyday Americans.

The World According to China.  Understanding the world China seeks to create by 2049, when the PRC turns 100 – The Diplomat reports.

The End of America’s China Fantasy.  Over the last couple of years, the policy of the US towards China has shifted from former governments regarding aiding China’s economic rise as a matter of national interest to the Trump administration considering them a “revisionist power” and “strategic competitor”.

China Expands Its Global Governance Ambitions in the Arctic.  China’s plans for a Polar Silk Road, as part of its ambitious multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative have become increasingly important for the Artic as polar ice melts, due to the region’s untapped oil, gas and minerals as well for its shipping routes.

The Gulf in Foreign Policy.  India’s approach of favouring Iran when it comes to dealing with the conflict between Gulf Arabs and Iran appears bereft of realism when so many of India’s interests — including trade, energy, expatriate remittances, and counter-terror cooperation — are so heavily tied to the Gulf Arabs.

Mitigating India’s Climate-Change Misery.  As heat related risks intensify, it is important that Indian authorities do more through distribution programs and technology solutions to protect the poor during heat waves.

China: How Big Tech is Learning to Love the Party.  The expansion of the party-state is extending into China’s increasingly-important tech sector as well, with tech entrepreneurs discovering that success lies more on complying with party initiatives, and less on market-based dynamics.