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Pointing to the Future

Narendra Modi Government’s Last Mile ChallengeIn its last year in office, the Modi government will have to deal with challenges including increased oil price, rural distress, and banking reform. Therefore, the last year in office will also be the most difficult one for the Modi government, and the biggest challenge will be to protect macroeconomic stability by not compromising on fiscal discipline.

China Will Need American Shale.  While China strives to meet its shale output targets, the country will have plenty of supply available from the United States, providing shale does not become a casualty of a U.S.-China trade war. For the Trump administration, the prospect of erasing a large amount of the U.S. trade deficit with China while supporting a thriving domestic industry could prove a tempting deal.

Trump’s China Deal is the Worst Ever. If nothing further is done, the U.S.-China trade deal reached this month will be remembered, to quote a phrase coined by the current president of the United States, as “the single worst trade deal” ever negotiated.

How China Acquires the Crown Jewels of American Technology. The U.S. fails to adequately police foreign deals for next-generation software that powers the military and American economic strength. Politico reports.

Is Multilateralism Finished? Although Donald Trump certainly deserves blame for disrupting global trade and security arrangements, the roots of today’s crisis of multilateralism run deeper than his presidency.

A Bilateral Foil for America’s Multilateral Dilemma. The May 19 deal between the US and China seems to have reduced tensions between the two countries. But, given the global nature of America’s trade deficit, any effort to impose a solution focusing on one country will likely backfire.

Even $200 Billion Isn’t Enough. Simply having China buy more American goods would make little difference to overall U.S. trade imbalances, but addressing U.S. capital imbalances with the world could be a more effective approach.

Perception and Misperception on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has all but completed its quest for nuclear weapons.

Beijing’s Building Boom. How the West surrendered global infrastructure development to China

To be a great power, India’s political weaknesses need to be redressed. On the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index, the country features fourth on overall economic resources, military capabilities, and diplomatic influence, and third in cultural influence. But the Index exposes some glaring weaknesses.

India’s Struggle for the Soul of the Indo-Pacific.  Both India and China realise that the normative and institutional architecture of the Indo-Pacific will shape the future international order. Ultimately, India’s engagement in the western Indian Ocean must not only protect its own economic, energy, and diaspora interests but also cohesively link with its “Act East” policy to preserve a rules-based order.

Wuhan Summit: An Important Signal of Intent by India and China.  The last two years have seen a considerable widening of differences between China and India over a range of issues. The recent Wuhan Summit was an important signal of intent by both countries to revive the relationship and better understand areas of convergence.

Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics in India. In the last three years, India has attracted less than $100 million in AI-oriented venture capital financing. There is growing AI interest, however, as India starts to invest additional resources and deploy new AI applications. As a sign of the increased activity level, AI applications are emerging in a number of different areas that show considerable promise.

The Double Standard of America’s China Trade Policy. Many liberal commentators in the US think that Donald Trump is right to confront China over its trade tactics, and object only to his methods. Yet Trump’s trade agenda is driven by a narrow mercantilism that privileges the interests of US corporations above those of all others.

China’s Financial Opening: Will it be Different This Time?  If China’s moves towards financial opening did not soften the U.S. administration’s stance toward China last year, why would this year’s Boao Forum speech, be any different? Obtaining a couple of licenses to operate in China’s financial market will not palm off the United States government or the U.S. business community.