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Pointing to the Future

Enjoy the Trump-Xi Trade War Truce While It Lasts.  President Trump and President Xi had agreed to press pause on the rapidly escalating tariff war between USA and China. But what Trump and Xi have done is merely punt the ball on heated (and perhaps intractable) trade and investment negotiations to 2019.

India and the World: Fueling a New Low-Carbon Growth Model.  India’s capability to grow in a carbon-scarce world will determine the fate of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Structural Reforms for Decarbonising India.  While India is on track to meet the commitments that it made in the lead-up to the Paris Agreement on climate change, it could do more to help keep the global temperature rise well below 2 degrees while simultaneously achieving its sustainable development goals.

American Climate Leadership Without American Government.  The COP24 is the biggest climate change meeting since the signing of the Paris Agreement, and a significant moment in history, worth reflecting on as United States leadership continues to recede on this critical global issue.

If State Elections Were General. On December 11, the results of five Indian state elections – in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram – were announced. These will be the last state elections before the 2019 Indian general election, about which speculation will now begin in earnest.

Can China Have a Difficult Conversation About the Internet?  China has 20 percent of the world’s internet users but can by itself only generate four percent of the effects possible from a global network (due to network theory). China is choosing to cut off part of these effects due to its approach to internet governance.

The New Old Threat. China is once again conducting cyber-enabled theft of U.S. intellectual property to advance its technological capabilities. To combat the problem, the United States should build a multinational coalition, sanction Chinese companies, and strengthen cyber defences.

India’s Congress Rises from the Dead.  The recent state elections in India have given hope to the Congress party for a potential resurgence and restoral of its fortunes

The Tech Wars Are Here.  India’s strategy of playing all sides among the great powers seemed sensible when Russia and China had a relatively benign relationship with America. That approach, however, is becoming difficult to sustain amidst Washington’s rapidly deteriorating relations with Moscow and Beijing.

The Arrest of Meng Wanzhou: The Stakes for Canada-China Relations.  With the arrest of Meng, Canada has a fine line to walk between its two leading trade partners and maintaining a hands-off attitude by the government toward the judicial process is extremely important.

Trade War as a New Facet of US-China Competition in Southeast Asia.  Given the current truce in the trade war, U.S. and Chinese firms will continue to relocate to Southeast Asia or expand their existing footprint in the region. The region is well poised to absorb re-directed trade and investment flows from the world’s two largest economies.

US-China Tensions: Is This About Economics or Security?  The danger in Trump’s rantings lies in the confounding of economic issues with the real and serious security issues that should be at the heart of the debate.

Rethinking the Gulf.  India is paying too little attention to the growing weight of the Gulf in regional affairs and the strategic possibilities that it opens up and if India continues to be disinterested, they are bound to look for other partners.

How Australia Should Deepen Ties with India.  The Australian government recently launched its “India Economic Strategy 2035” that highlighted why it is absolutely vital for Australia to see India as a key economic and geopolitical partner in this era of growing Chinese might.

The Brute Power Behind China’s South China Sea Grab.  It has been just five years since China initiated its major land reclamation in the South China Sea, and the country has already shifted the territorial status quo in its favour—without facing any international pushback.

Uncertainties Ahead for Philippine-China Relations.  Xi’s recent visit provoked domestic backlash in the Philippines against warming ties with China, a development that may gain steam ahead of next year’s mid-term elections.

The Need for Reforms in the Education Sector.  The Indian education sector has seen a lot of investment over recent years, but further investments and shifts in reforms are in the coming years in order to allow India to prepare its people for the coming shifts in jobs, skills and market structures.

Maximizing India’s Development Finance.  India’s public-private partnership (PPP) projects is expected to play a key role in creating markets, improving efficiency gains and fill the infrastructure financing gap.

China’s Boldest Experiment. Throughout the country’s economic transformation, the political primacy of the Communist Party of China was never in question but continued economic development could eventually lead to political liberalisation.